Category Archives: Today’s Idea

A Question of Timing

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How do you ensure that you launch your new product at the right time?

We had neared the end of my lecture to a class of first year MBA students: an hour of what to expect in b-school and an hour on the success and failure of a new product launch, covering the gamut of Ford Edsel to New Coke. It struck me that, quite naturally and somewhat disappointingly, I did not have a “right” answer to that question.

The timing of a new product launch is often determined by factors such as overall business plans, product readiness, competitive launches, and seasonal cycles. The 10-year growth strategy might have specific time points for particular new launches. The new product development team would have certain limitations and capabilities that determine when the product would be ready. The new product might be launched quickly in order to be the first to market, it might be launched later in order to take a competitive launch head on. Several product categories such as consumer goods are in higher demand during particular times of the year, and launching them then would make the most business sense.

But what do you just before the rains if the technology for your new umbrella is yet to be transferred from China? What if your R&D department has gone through multiple rounds of development but is nowhere near a good product, with only two more months to go before your scheduled deadline? What if your competitor got there faster?

The real world includes delays and uncertainties, risks and new developments. Timing the launch of a new product is not always within the control of the company. More on this in my next post ‘A Question of Timing – More Answers.’

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The World in 2045

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Imagine this:

2025 — people decide to democratically elect their representatives and form the World Government

2030 — language translation is the fastest-growing industry

2035 — security and fraud prevention industry is obsolete, since every person is uniquely identifiable and is connected to the global social network

2040 — phased global demilitarization is complete, and the freed up resources are spent on child nutrition and education

2045 — air travel is so frequent that da Vinci’s dream comes true: someone successfully commercializes solar powered “wings” for personal flights

Difficult to imagine? Well, when the connected generation – the one that does not know of a time without the internet – grows up, international borders will seem not only needless but irrelevant. And the stage is set for the true global village to emerge.

Thriving in Ambiguity

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Data is indispensable to most decision-making. The large market share that a company commands could mean 15% or 75%, and it is important to know that when deciding which markets to focus on. The short-term interest rate might be 2.25% higher than that on long term debt. However, there comes a point when either additional data is not available or additional analysis is not helpful. At that point, knowing there is ambiguity and still progressing becomes critical.

I have a hunch that Samsung, at some point, took a call – despite the absence of perfect data – to invest in technology and in building the brand; and that has been paying off handsomely now. Neither data nor analysis could have provided the confidence necessary to take that decision.

Often, an estimate is all one gets to work with.

 

Prepare for the Best

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We are often told to “hope for the best, prepare for the worst,” and the advice seems well-founded. After all, who wouldn’t want to survive through the worst of circumstances?

But preparing for the worst makes your company capable of exactly that – responding perfectly when the worst possible situation comes. The arsenal is all ready for when your most important competitor starts a price war, so is it when your customers don’t adopt your new product. But what if the same competitor shifts focus to a different market segment, or your new product is adopted surprisingly well by the market? Having the options in place to quickly increase production will then allow you to capture the market. At the very least, having a way of noticing such an opportunity will let you take advantage of the next one when it arises.

Sun Tzu says in The Art of War: “Be conscious of possible disadvantages that can arise when you are in a favorable position. Also be prepared for possible advantages that can arise even when you are in the midst of misfortune.”

What are Systems for?

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Systems, processes, methods are all orderly ways of doing things, important when organizations grow. And yet, systems are meaningful only if they support the greater cause of the organization’s existence. If rules are cited by rote and adhered to in order to be seen as adherent, our systems have failed us.

At one of the offices of a large company, a friend had to stand at the entrance waiting for the requisite documents that would give her permission to enter, even as the person she had an appointment with waited inside. “Madam, hamein toh apne aap ko bachake rakhna hai,” the security guard told her in full frankness: “Madam, we have to keep ourselves safe.” Of course, guards have to secure not just the premises but their own jobs too.

Companies do this so often with customers – at call centres, at (oxymoronic) customer care centres, at retail outlets, and at other touchpoints. Mostly because processes have been drilled into the very people who deal directly with customers.

When employees are empowered to allow exceptions, the results are exhilarating, such as when the call centre supervisor at an airline company allows an immediate waiver of the cancellation penalty, without requiring lengthy emails and multiple phone calls.

 

Where Credibility Stems From

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Credibility – the confidence that is critical when trying to sell your product or service – comes from several sources. For startups, the source might simply be (baseless) confidence in one’s ability to deliver. Later on, having proven results to the company’s name makes it easier to approach other potential leads. And over a period of time, even results become irrelevant if enough customers have bought the same product or service. Once the market reaches a tipping point, herd behavior among customers kicks in if other factors are conducive.

I can easily imagine some of Infosys’s earliest clients buying their IT projects after listening to the bunch of youngsters who sounded like they barely knew what they were doing. Over a period, having done multiple projects and delivered results that were measurable, they would have found it easier to present credentials. Of course, the company is busy setting its own house in order now, but that’s another story.

Showcasing credibility is easier with experience, but the process has to start somewhere. Perhaps square one is not a bad place to begin.

Constructive Discontent

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There are the discontented who complain of the state of things – they don’t act. There are the contented who are happy with the state of things – they don’t act either. And then there are the creative, imaginative ones who see the world for what it can be, not for what it is – and they act. Because their vision is as real as anything solid. And their discontent does not let them rest till they act.

Very recently, I listened to someone in the development sector who had, about a decade ago, guided a rude, uncared for young boy from the slums of Mumbai and nurtured him into a confident lad who now leads an NGO. Her eyes shone as she described the tremendous faith that she had in the boy when every other teacher in the school considered him hopeless.

Ask her, and she will tell you that she didn’t do anything heroic. All she did was listen to the inner discontent that didn’t let her let go of hope.

 

The Sprint and the Marathon

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Building something is about staying invested, about weathering the ups and downs, and mostly, about staying long enough till dame luck smiles. This is a difficult fact to acknowledge, especially today when results have to come fast, and making one’s own luck is the done thing.

I know someone who has decided that he wants to build an independent consulting firm, and regardless of what he does, he has already taken a decision that will drive the odds in his favor – he has decided to stay with consulting for three years, come what may. Staying power is hard to come by today, when every decision has to show results in the next quarter’s earnings, and every piece of work has to add to one’s resume.

But it doesn’t have to be that way.