Cyclicality in Economies

The imposition of custom duty on flat panel televisions last month is seen in some quarters as a signal that the government is serious about trying to reduce the current account deficit. Similarly, the increase of import duty for gold, twice in fact, during recent months is being seen as a signal that the government does care about the economy.

However, these moves have not been without negative effects. Signalling could be either ignored or misinterpreted. In either case, it might not achieve its intentions. Not all of these signals reach their aim. For instance, the higher import duty on gold has led to instances of  smuggling of gold.

At times like these, it takes guts to say that India’s crisis could be a good thing, and to take the effort to explain why. Prof. Jayanth R. Varma of the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad has done exactly that in his post dated 29 Aug. The same post also points to three other links that are equally worth reading. His blog is worth following even for those who are not in the world of finance and business.

Besides this, there is also the history of other countries that we can consider in order to understand our own economy better. There is cyclicality which is seen in several economies. There are periods of booms and busts, and very often the cyclicality is something policy-makers might find difficult to act upon.

One country whose history is interesting for us to understand is Argentina. Apparently, Argentina is a country that has seen strong growth followed by political deterioration accompanied by economic decadence. For those who are even mildly interested, the Wikipedia page of the economic history of Argentina makes for very interesting reading. Many thanks to the person who pointed this out.

2 thoughts on “Cyclicality in Economies

  1. The problem you see with the Indian economy is not CAD led in totality. The main problem as you cited about Argentina, same follows with every country. When foreign investment is made in a country it is imperative this foreign capital is quickly replaced with domestic capital. For that to happen the investments have to be necessarily and effectively gainful. the solution cannot be in rallying import regulations (similar was the situation even during the Great Depression but when economies turned to autarky it only spiralled the depression) but due considerations have to be made that the investments made are going back as profits. Infra development fights the Indian case better than trade regulations.

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  2. Pingback: Family Businesses in Transition | The GreenCompass Blog

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